Governance of the Fiscal Transition in Road Transport: Public Policy Design and System Dynamics Modelling for Taxation in the Post-Conventional Fuel Context. Carlos Filipe Marques Supervised by Prof. Rosário Macário

The seminar examines how the electrification of mobility, while reducing fossil fuel consumption, also weakens the tax revenues traditionally generated by petrol and diesel, creating new challenges for transport funding. Using a system dynamics approach, the research analyses key variables such as fleet composition, energy consumption patterns, technological change, energy prices, and taxation models, while also accounting for external uncertainties such as shocks in global oil markets. It also discusses public policy alternatives, including distance-based charging and hybrid taxation models, assessing their implications for fiscal sustainability and the energy transition.